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Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals Recap

MLB · September 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — St. Louis Cardinals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.9pp  ·  closed at 2.05 (48.8%)

Small Play Dog play
St. Louis Cardinals
+108 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 48%
Edge +2.6 pts

Solid 2.6% edge at FanDuel (2.08).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.8% —
+ Season record + form
49.7% -1.1pp
Platt rescale
42.9% -6.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.7% +3.8pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
6 - 7
Win rate
46%
Avg CLV
+5.0pt
ROI
+14.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.