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New York Mets @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · September 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.1pp  ·  closed at 2.58 (38.8%)

Small Play Dog play
New York Mets
+154 on FanDuel
Model 39%
Market 39%
Edge +5.5 pts

Solid 5.5% edge at FanDuel (2.54).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
42.5% —
+ Season record + form
41.4% -1.1pp
Calibration offset
43.6% +2.2pp
Platt rescale
37.8% -5.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
38.7% +0.9pp

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