Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · September 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.6pp · closed at 2.69 (37.2%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.8pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.