New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
MLB · July 25, 2026 · Lakeshore Edge calibrated model + Polymarket cross-check.
Sub-coinflip pick (model 49%) with only 1.3pt edge. Thin-edge longshots in this band bleed historically; skipped unless the edge clears 4pt.
Why the model leans this way
The model's base read on Philadelphia Phillies starts at Elo, where a 31-point disadvantage (HCA of +24 Elo points to the home team) maps to a 52% baseline win probability. Recent form across the last 10 games shifted that to 51% after blending the team's last-10 record into the rating.
Tonight's probable starter for Philadelphia Phillies is Jesus Luzardo (ERA 3.43). They face Cam Schlittler on the other side (ERA 2.2). Weather: 83F, 5 mph from SE.
Multi-book consensus across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle prices Philadelphia Phillies at 47.9% — broadly in line with FanDuel's read. Pinnacle (the sharp-book reference, ~2% vig) has Philadelphia Phillies at 47.2%. Polymarket's real-money pool reads 45.5%.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
What other markets think
Implied probability of Philadelphia Phillies across the books and prediction markets we track, alongside the Lakeshore Edge model's own number.
| Source | Implied % | Note |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 48.1% | Execution book (this is the price you'd take). |
| DraftKings | 48.1% | Cross-book check. |
| BetMGM | 48.8% | Cross-book check. |
| Pinnacle | 47.2% | Sharp-book reference (~2% vig). |
| Polymarket | 45.5% | Real-money prediction-market pool. |
| Kalshi | 46.5% | CFTC-regulated event market. |
| Lakeshore Edge model | 46.7% | Edge vs FanDuel: +1.3pt. |
Model performance on Philadelphia Phillies picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Frequently asked
What's the model's edge on New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies?
The Lakeshore Edge model rates Philadelphia Phillies at 47% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 48% — a marginal edge of +1.3pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet. The model has averaged +4.1pt CLV across 734 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.
How likely is Philadelphia Phillies to win according to the model?
47% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Pinnacle, the industry's sharpest book at ~2% vig, has them at 47.2%; Polymarket's real-money traders price the same outcome at 45.5%. The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.
What's closing-line value (CLV) and why does it matter?
Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.1pt CLV on 734 graded singles, beating the close on 91% of them.
How has the model done on Philadelphia Phillies picks recently?
Over the last 60 days the model has made 14 Philadelphia Phillies picks, going 3-11 (21% win rate) averaging +4.18pt CLV with -47.36% ROI. Recent-team performance is a small slice; treat it as context for tonight's call rather than a guarantee.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.