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Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap

MLB · July 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 28% against FanDuel's implied 30% — an edge of +6.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.8pp  ·  closed at 2.92 (34.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+230 on FanDuel
Model 28%
Market 30%
Edge +6.7 pts

Solid 6.7% edge at FanDuel (3.30). Elo agrees (-93 gap). Best is 3.59 at DraftKings.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
33.8%
+ Season record + form
31.8% -2.0pp
Calibration offset
37.7% +5.9pp
Platt rescale
31.3% -6.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
30.1% -1.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
27.9% -2.2pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
8 - 25
Win rate
24%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
-47.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.