Arizona Diamondbacks @ Washington Nationals Recap

MLB · July 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 45% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +3.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.4pp · closed at 2.17 (46.1%)

Pass Dog play

Arizona Diamondbacks

Model 45%

Market 46%

Edge +3.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

47.7% —

+ Season record + form

49.2% +1.5pp

Platt rescale

41.3% -7.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

39.3% -2.0pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

45.3% +6.0pp

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