Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · July 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.47 (40.5%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
38%
Market
39%
Edge
+5.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
43.0%
—
Calibration offset
45.3%
+2.3pp
Platt rescale
36.9%
-8.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.1%
-1.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
38.3%
+3.2pp
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