Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

MLB · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 45% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +3.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.1pp · closed at 2.44 (41.0%)

Small Play Dog play

Minnesota Twins

Model 45%

Market 42%

Edge +3.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

43.7% —

Calibration offset

45.1% +1.4pp

Platt rescale

40.9% -4.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

39.0% -1.9pp

Line-movement nudge

38.6% -0.4pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

45.1% +6.5pp

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