Lakeshore Edge Create Free Account

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners Recap

MLB · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp  ·  closed at 2.26 (44.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Arizona Diamondbacks
+120 on FanDuel
Model 48%
Market 45%
Edge +2.1 pts

Solid 2.1% edge at FanDuel (2.20).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.4%
+ Season record + form
51.4% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
43.5% -8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.4% -3.1pp
Line-movement nudge
41.5% +1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.5% +6.0pp

Model performance on Arizona Diamondbacks picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
12
W - L
6 - 5
Win rate
55%
Avg CLV
+4.0pt
ROI
+17.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.