Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · May 31, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 2.26 (44.2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
48%
Market
45%
Edge
+2.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
51.4%
+2.0pp
Platt rescale
43.5%
-8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.4%
-3.1pp
Line-movement nudge
41.5%
+1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.5%
+6.0pp
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