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Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints Recap

NFL · October 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Pittsburgh Steelers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Pittsburgh Steelers at 57% against FanDuel's implied 57% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.2pp  ·  closed at 1.56 (64.1%)

Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers
-132 on FanDuel
Model 57%
Market 57%
Edge +7.5 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
57.4% —
+ Season record + form
66.0% +8.6pp
Calibration offset
63.0% -3.0pp
Platt rescale
72.5% +9.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
57.1% -15.4pp

Model performance on Pittsburgh Steelers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
16
W - L
14 - 2
Win rate
88%
Avg CLV
+6.7pt
ROI
+27.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.