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Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans Recap

NFL · October 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Cleveland Browns WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Browns at 55% against FanDuel's implied 54% — an edge of +11.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp  ·  closed at 1.80 (55.6%)

Top Pick
Cleveland Browns
-116 on FanDuel
Model 55%
Market 54%
Edge +11.4 pts

Model gives 65.2% vs FanDuel's implied 53.8%. Elo gap of +126 backs it.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
60.1% —
+ Season record + form
69.0% +8.9pp
+ Factors (QB / weather / rest / trends)
68.2% -0.8pp
Calibration offset
65.2% -3.0pp
Platt rescale
75.2% +10.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
74.1% -1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
54.6% -19.5pp

Model performance on Cleveland Browns picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
24
W - L
21 - 3
Win rate
88%
Avg CLV
+6.9pt
ROI
+69.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.