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Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Recap

NFL · October 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Cincinnati Bengals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cincinnati Bengals at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +7.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -5.6pp  ·  closed at 1.92 (52.1%)

Small Play Dog play
Cincinnati Bengals
+156 on FanDuel
Model 39%
Market 39%
Edge +7.4 pts

Solid 7.4% edge at FanDuel (2.56). Elo agrees (-53 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
34.9% —
+ Season record + form
35.9% +1.0pp
Calibration offset
42.3% +6.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.5% -0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
39.1% -2.4pp
Final model probability
39.1% -0.1pp

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