Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Recap
NFL · October 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Jacksonville Jaguars LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Jacksonville Jaguars at 52% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.4pp · closed at 1.95 (51.3%)
Solid 4.2% edge at FanDuel (1.87).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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