Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Recap
NFL · October 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Chargers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Chargers at 23% against FanDuel's implied 22% — an edge of +13.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +13.7pp · closed at 4.53 (22.1%)
Model gives 35.8% vs FanDuel's implied 22.2%. Elo gap of -126 backs it. Note: best price is 4.70 at DraftKings.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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