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Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Recap

NFL · September 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Minnesota Vikings WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Vikings at 55% against FanDuel's implied 57% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.4pp  ·  closed at 1.71 (58.5%)

Small Play
Minnesota Vikings
-132 on FanDuel
Model 55%
Market 57%
Edge +2.1 pts

Solid 2.1% edge at FanDuel (1.76).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
56.7% —
+ Season record + form
52.4% -4.3pp
Platt rescale
44.9% -7.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
49.0% +4.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
55.4% +6.4pp

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