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Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers Recap

NFL · September 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Arizona Cardinals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Cardinals at 22% against FanDuel's implied 21% — an edge of +13.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +13.1pp  ·  closed at 4.74 (21.1%)

Top Pick Dog play
Arizona Cardinals
+380 on FanDuel
Model 22%
Market 21%
Edge +13.4 pts

Model gives 34.2% vs FanDuel's implied 20.8%. Elo gap of -125 backs it.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
26.2% —
+ Season record + form
24.2% -2.0pp
Platt rescale
25.9% +1.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
23.5% -2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
21.7% -1.8pp

Model performance on Arizona Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
7 - 18
Win rate
28%
Avg CLV
+9.9pt
ROI
-20.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.