Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Recap
NFL · September 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Texans LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Texans at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +3.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 1.92 (52.1%)
Solid 3.7% edge at FanDuel (1.91).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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