Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns Recap
NBA · April 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Phoenix Suns — VOID.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Phoenix Suns at 49% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +7.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Phoenix Suns
144 on FanDuel
Model
49%
Market
41%
Edge
+7.1 pts
Solid 7.1% edge at FanDuel (2.44). Elo agrees (-92 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
45.1%
—
+ Season record + form
42.3%
-2.8pp
Calibration offset
43.6%
+1.4pp
Platt rescale
49.3%
+5.7pp
Final model probability
49.3%
—
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