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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Recap

NBA · April 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

VOID

Minnesota Timberwolves — VOID.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Timberwolves at 52% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
Minnesota Timberwolves
114 on FanDuel
Model 52%
Market 47%
Edge +3.7 pts

Solid 3.7% edge at FanDuel (2.14).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
31.0%
+ Season record + form
34.2% +3.2pp
+ Factors (pitcher / injury / weather / trends)
34.9% +0.7pp
Calibration offset
39.4% +4.4pp
Platt rescale
51.9% +12.5pp
Final model probability
51.9%

Model performance on Minnesota Timberwolves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
18
W - L
10 - 7
Win rate
59%
Avg CLV
-8.7pt
ROI
+91.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.