Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Recap
NBA · April 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Boston Celtics WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Boston Celtics at 46% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Boston Celtics
150 on FanDuel
Model
46%
Market
40%
Edge
+5.1 pts
Solid 5.1% edge at FanDuel (2.50). Elo agrees (+53 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.5%
—
+ Season record + form
47.8%
+8.3pp
Calibration offset
48.6%
+1.1pp
Platt rescale
46.4%
-2.2pp
Final model probability
46.4%
—
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