Tom Nolan @ Fares Ziam Prediction

The Lakeshore Edge model rates Tom Nolan at 28% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 30% — a marginal edge of -1.8pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet. The model has averaged +4.2pt CLV across 296 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.

28% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Pinnacle, the industry's sharpest book at ~2% vig, has them at 27.4%; Polymarket's real-money traders price the same outcome at 27.0%. The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.

FanDuel's price implies 30% on Tom Nolan, but the model has it at 28% — a -1.8pt gap. The model's reasoning is fully visible in the waterfall above; each adjustment stage is logged so the call can be audited after the game.

Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.2pt CLV on 296 graded singles, beating the close on 90% of them.