Ariane Carnelossi @ Ketlen Souza Prediction
MMA · June 06, 2026 · Lakeshore Edge calibrated model + Polymarket cross-check.
At FanDuel (3.30) the bet is negative-EV. Best price elsewhere is 3.45 at DraftKings.
Why the model leans this way
Multi-book consensus across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle prices Ariane Carnelossi at 29.1% — broadly in line with FanDuel's read. Pinnacle (the sharp-book reference, ~2% vig) has Ariane Carnelossi at 28.6%. Polymarket's real-money pool reads 28.5%.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
What other markets think
Implied probability of Ariane Carnelossi across the books and prediction markets we track, alongside the Lakeshore Edge model's own number.
| Source | Implied % | Note |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 30.3% | Execution book (this is the price you'd take). |
| DraftKings | 29.0% | Cross-book check. |
| Pinnacle | 28.6% | Sharp-book reference (~2% vig). |
| Polymarket | 28.5% | Real-money prediction-market pool. |
| Lakeshore Edge model | 29.5% | Edge vs FanDuel: -0.8pt. |
Frequently asked
What's the model's edge on Ariane Carnelossi @ Ketlen Souza?
The Lakeshore Edge model rates Ariane Carnelossi at 30% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 30% — a marginal edge of -0.8pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet. The model has averaged +4.2pt CLV across 296 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.
How likely is Ariane Carnelossi to win according to the model?
30% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Pinnacle, the industry's sharpest book at ~2% vig, has them at 28.6%; Polymarket's real-money traders price the same outcome at 28.5%. The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.
What's closing-line value (CLV) and why does it matter?
Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.2pt CLV on 296 graded singles, beating the close on 90% of them.
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