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Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox Recap

MLB · September 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Colorado Rockies WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 33% against FanDuel's implied 34% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.7pp  ·  closed at 3.16 (31.6%)

Pass Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+194 on FanDuel
Model 33%
Market 34%
Edge +4.3 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 2.3pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
36.8% —
+ Season record + form
36.1% -0.7pp
Calibration offset
39.0% +2.9pp
Platt rescale
32.6% -6.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.3% +0.7pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
21
W - L
7 - 14
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+5.2pt
ROI
+4.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.