Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · September 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 38% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.7pp · closed at 2.73 (36.6%)
Solid 5.9% edge at FanDuel (2.60).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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