Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · September 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +5.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp · closed at 2.38 (42.0%)
Solid 5.4% edge at FanDuel (2.40). Elo agrees (-42 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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