New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · September 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 44% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +6.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.9pp · closed at 2.41 (41.5%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 3.5pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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