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Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees Recap

MLB · September 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 32% against FanDuel's implied 33% — an edge of +4.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.0pp  ·  closed at 3.12 (32.0%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+200 on FanDuel
Model 32%
Market 33%
Edge +4.8 pts

Solid 4.8% edge at FanDuel (3.00). Elo agrees (-92 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
33.9% —
Calibration offset
38.0% +4.1pp
Platt rescale
33.2% -4.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
31.9% -1.3pp
Final model probability
32.2% +0.3pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
21
W - L
7 - 14
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+5.2pt
ROI
+4.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.