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St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · September 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.1pp  ·  closed at 1.94 (51.5%)

Small Play
St. Louis Cardinals
-110 on FanDuel
Model 51%
Market 52%
Edge +2.3 pts

Solid 2.3% edge at FanDuel (1.91).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
48.6% —
+ Season record + form
52.0% +3.4pp
Calibration offset
51.4% -0.6pp
Platt rescale
44.0% -7.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.4% +2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.2% +4.8pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
13
W - L
6 - 7
Win rate
46%
Avg CLV
+5.0pt
ROI
+14.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.