Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds Recap

MLB · June 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 45% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 2.39 (41.8%)

Small Play Dog play

Kansas City Royals

Model 45%

Market 43%

Edge +2.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

39.8% —

+ Season record + form

39.2% -0.6pp

Calibration offset

41.5% +2.3pp

Platt rescale

37.6% -3.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

38.5% +0.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

45.2% +6.7pp

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