New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners Prediction
MLB · June 03, 2026 · Lakeshore Edge calibrated model + Polymarket cross-check.
Solid 3.3% edge at FanDuel (1.74).
Why the model leans this way
The model's base read on Seattle Mariners starts at Elo, where a 7-point disadvantage (HCA of +24 Elo points to the home team) maps to a 56% baseline win probability. Recent form across the last 10 games shifted that to 55% after blending the team's last-10 record into the rating.
Tonight's probable starter for Seattle Mariners is Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.69). They face Jonah Tong on the other side (ERA 0.0). Weather: DOME (neutral).
Across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle, consensus prices Seattle Mariners at 59.2% — about 1.75pp higher than FanDuel's implied 57%. The FanDuel line is stale in the bettor's favor. Polymarket's real-money pool reads 57.5%.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
What other markets think
Implied probability of Seattle Mariners across the books and prediction markets we track, alongside the Lakeshore Edge model's own number.
| Source | Implied % | Note |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 57.5% | Execution book (this is the price you'd take). |
| DraftKings | 61.0% | Cross-book check. |
| Polymarket | 57.5% | Real-money prediction-market pool. |
| Kalshi | 57.5% | CFTC-regulated event market. |
| Lakeshore Edge model | 60.8% | Edge vs FanDuel: +3.3pt. |
Frequently asked
What's the model's edge on New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners?
The Lakeshore Edge model rates Seattle Mariners at 61% to win or cover, versus FanDuel's implied 57% — a small edge of +3.3pt. That gap is what the model flags as a potential bet. The model has averaged +4.2pt CLV across 296 graded singles, meaning prices it picks tend to drift in the bettor's favor before close.
How likely is Seattle Mariners to win according to the model?
61% by the Lakeshore Edge model. Polymarket's real-money traders price the same outcome at 57.5%. The model blends Elo, recent form, sport-specific factors (pitching, injuries, weather), and live line movement to land on that number.
Why does the model disagree with the sportsbook?
FanDuel's price implies 57% on Seattle Mariners, but the model has it at 61% — a +3.3pt gap. Multi-book consensus across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Pinnacle agrees the line is stale by 1.8pp. The model's reasoning is fully visible in the waterfall above; each adjustment stage is logged so the call can be audited after the game.
What's closing-line value (CLV) and why does it matter?
Closing-line value is how much your entry price beats the market's closing price on the same bet. If you pick a side at FanDuel -130 and the line closes at -150, the line moved 4pp toward your side after you locked in — that's positive CLV. CLV is the leading indicator of long-run profit because it's the metric that survives variance: a sustained positive CLV means you're consistently getting a better price than the consensus market settles on. Lakeshore Edge averages +4.2pt CLV on 296 graded singles, beating the close on 90% of them.
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