San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · June 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 51% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.2pp · closed at 2.32 (43.1%)
San Diego Padres
Model
51%
Market
45%
Edge
+5.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.9%
—
+ Season record + form
54.4%
+2.5pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
53.8%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
53.1%
-0.7pp
Platt rescale
50.4%
-2.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.8%
-3.6pp
Line-movement nudge
45.5%
-1.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.3%
+5.8pp
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