San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · June 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 51% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.2pp · closed at 2.32 (43.1%)

Small Play

San Diego Padres

Model 51%

Market 45%

Edge +5.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

51.9% —

+ Season record + form

54.4% +2.5pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

53.8% -0.6pp

Calibration offset

53.1% -0.7pp

Platt rescale

50.4% -2.7pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.8% -3.6pp

Line-movement nudge

45.5% -1.3pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

51.3% +5.8pp

Model performance on San Diego Padres picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

4 - 6

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+2.1pt

ROI

-45.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.