Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · June 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 51% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.1pp · closed at 2.10 (47.6%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
51%
Market
49%
Edge
+2.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.6%
—
+ Season record + form
48.6%
-2.0pp
Platt rescale
42.5%
-6.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.7%
+2.2pp
Line-movement nudge
43.8%
-0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.7%
+6.9pp
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