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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · June 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 51% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.1pp  ·  closed at 2.10 (47.6%)

Small Play
Minnesota Twins
+106 on FanDuel
Model 51%
Market 49%
Edge +2.1 pts

Solid 2.1% edge at FanDuel (2.06).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.6%
+ Season record + form
48.6% -2.0pp
Platt rescale
42.5% -6.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.7% +2.2pp
Line-movement nudge
43.8% -0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.7% +6.9pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
24
W - L
8 - 16
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+2.6pt
ROI
-10.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.