Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · May 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -1.1pp · closed at 2.04 (49.0%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
48%
Market
45%
Edge
+2.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.4%
—
Calibration offset
43.0%
+1.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.8%
-0.2pp
Line-movement nudge
43.3%
+0.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.0%
+4.7pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.