Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 2.27 (44.0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
48%
Market
45%
Edge
+2.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.4%
—
+ Season record + form
51.4%
+2.0pp
Platt rescale
46.6%
-4.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.0%
-3.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.5%
+4.5pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.