Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners Recap

MLB · May 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 48% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 2.27 (44.0%)

Small Play Dog play

Arizona Diamondbacks

Model 48%

Market 45%

Edge +2.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

49.4% —

+ Season record + form

51.4% +2.0pp

Platt rescale

46.6% -4.8pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

43.0% -3.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.5% +4.5pp

Model performance on Arizona Diamondbacks picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

10 - 7

Win rate

59%

Avg CLV

+4.2pt

ROI

+70.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.