St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap

MLB · May 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 45% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.0pp · closed at 2.83 (35.3%)

Small Play Dog play

St. Louis Cardinals

Model 45%

Market 38%

Edge +7.5 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

44.5% —

+ Season record + form

45.3% +0.8pp

Calibration offset

45.9% +0.6pp

Platt rescale

46.7% +0.8pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.0% -0.7pp

Line-movement nudge

44.5% -1.5pp

Final model probability

45.4% +0.9pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

18 - 27

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+5.5pt

ROI

-11.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.