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St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap

MLB · May 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 45% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.0pp  ·  closed at 2.83 (35.3%)

Small Play Dog play
St. Louis Cardinals
+164 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 38%
Edge +7.5 pts

Solid 7.5% edge at FanDuel (2.64). Best is 2.78 at DraftKings.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
44.5%
+ Season record + form
45.3% +0.8pp
Calibration offset
45.9% +0.6pp
Platt rescale
46.7% +0.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.0% -0.7pp
Line-movement nudge
44.5% -1.5pp
Final model probability
45.4% +0.9pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
42
W - L
17 - 25
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+4.6pt
ROI
-25.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.