Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Recap
MLB · May 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 49% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.22 (45.1%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
49%
Market
47%
Edge
+2.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.6%
—
+ Season record + form
52.8%
+2.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.5%
-4.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.3%
+0.8pp
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