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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Recap

MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

VOID

St. Louis Cardinals — VOID.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 53% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +5.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Small Play
St. Louis Cardinals
110 on FanDuel
Model 53%
Market 48%
Edge +5.7 pts

Solid 5.7% edge at FanDuel (2.10).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.1%
+ Season record + form
52.3% +2.2pp
+ Factors (pitcher / injury / weather / trends)
51.3% -1.0pp
Platt rescale
49.9% -1.9pp
Final model probability
49.9% -0.1pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
14 - 5
Win rate
74%
Avg CLV
+2.0pt
ROI
+19.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.