Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 43% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.7pp · closed at 2.73 (36.6%)

Small Play Dog play

Colorado Rockies

Model 43%

Market 38%

Edge +4.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

38.7% —

+ Season record + form

37.8% -0.9pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

37.2% -0.6pp

Calibration offset

39.8% +2.6pp

Platt rescale

40.8% +1.0pp

Line-movement nudge

40.5% -0.3pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

43.4% +2.8pp

Final model probability

43.4% -0.1pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

21 - 22

Win rate

49%

Avg CLV

+5.1pt

ROI

+17.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.