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Athletics @ San Diego Padres Recap

MLB · May 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Athletics WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 46% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.5pp  ·  closed at 2.52 (39.7%)

Small Play Dog play
Athletics
Model 46%
Market 40%
Edge +6.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
41.9%
Calibration offset
43.6% +1.7pp
Platt rescale
43.4% -0.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.5% +2.1pp
Final model probability
46.2% +0.7pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
35
W - L
14 - 21
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+3.6pt
ROI
-13.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.