Lakeshore Edge Sign in

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Recap

NFL · October 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — San Francisco 49ers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Francisco 49ers at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +7.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.3pp  ·  closed at 2.39 (41.8%)

Small Play Dog play
San Francisco 49ers
+146 on FanDuel
Model 40%
Market 41%
Edge +7.5 pts

Solid 7.5% edge at FanDuel (2.46).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
45.1% —
+ Season record + form
50.1% +5.0pp
+ Factors (QB / weather / rest / trends)
49.6% -0.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.1% -4.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.1% -5.0pp

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.