Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Recap
NFL · October 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Las Vegas Raiders LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Las Vegas Raiders at 39% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.1pp · closed at 2.62 (38.2%)
Solid 4.9% edge at FanDuel (2.54). Elo agrees (-64 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Las Vegas Raiders picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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