Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Recap
NFL · October 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Bears LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Bears at 51% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.8pp · closed at 1.90 (52.6%)
Solid 2.9% edge at FanDuel (1.98). Elo agrees (+60 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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