Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers Recap
NFL · October 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Denver Broncos LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Denver Broncos at 42% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +5.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.2pp · closed at 2.47 (40.5%)
Solid 5.8% edge at FanDuel (2.28). Best is 2.40 at DraftKings.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Denver Broncos picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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