Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals Recap
NFL · October 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Jacksonville Jaguars WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Jacksonville Jaguars at 45% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +7.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.9pp · closed at 2.23 (44.8%)
Solid 7.7% edge at FanDuel (2.22). Elo agrees (+73 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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