Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans Recap
NFL · October 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Dallas Cowboys WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Dallas Cowboys at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.3pp · closed at 2.34 (42.7%)
Dallas Cowboys
+132 on FanDuel
Model
43%
Market
43%
Edge
+5.0 pts
Solid 5.0% edge at FanDuel (2.32).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.7%
—
+ Season record + form
45.5%
+3.8pp
Calibration offset
47.4%
+1.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.1%
-2.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.0%
-2.1pp
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