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Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants Recap

NFL · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Tennessee Titans LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tennessee Titans at 42% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.8pp  ·  closed at 2.21 (45.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Tennessee Titans
+164 on FanDuel
Model 42%
Market 38%
Edge +6.6 pts

Solid 6.6% edge at FanDuel (2.64). Elo agrees (-62 gap). Best is 2.80 at BetMGM.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
33.8% —
+ Season record + form
34.4% +0.6pp
Calibration offset
41.6% +7.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.2% -2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.2% +3.0pp

Model performance on Tennessee Titans picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
14
W - L
8 - 6
Win rate
57%
Avg CLV
+7.4pt
ROI
+90.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.