Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders Recap
NFL · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Seattle Seahawks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Seahawks at 57% against FanDuel's implied 55% — an edge of +13.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Seattle Seahawks
-120 on FanDuel
Model
57%
Market
55%
Edge
+13.9 pts
Model gives 68.5% vs FanDuel's implied 54.6%. Elo gap of +179 backs it.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
67.1%
—
+ Season record + form
76.4%
+9.3pp
+ Factors (QB / weather / rest / trends)
75.3%
-1.1pp
Platt rescale
61.6%
-13.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
58.2%
-3.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
57.4%
-0.8pp
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