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Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Recap

NFL · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Pittsburgh Steelers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Pittsburgh Steelers at 43% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.1pp  ·  closed at 2.43 (41.1%)

Small Play Dog play
Pittsburgh Steelers
+116 on FanDuel
Model 43%
Market 46%
Edge +4.9 pts

Solid 4.9% edge at FanDuel (2.16).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
57.4% —
+ Season record + form
53.4% -4.0pp
+ Factors (QB / weather / rest / trends)
52.8% -0.6pp
Calibration offset
51.6% -1.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
49.2% -2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.9% -6.4pp
Final model probability
42.9% -0.1pp

Model performance on Pittsburgh Steelers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
16
W - L
14 - 2
Win rate
88%
Avg CLV
+6.7pt
ROI
+27.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.