New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars Recap
NFL · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Jacksonville Jaguars WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Jacksonville Jaguars at 53% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +8.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.8pp · closed at 1.97 (50.8%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 2.2pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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