Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills Recap
NFL · September 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Chargers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Chargers at 29% against FanDuel's implied 24% — an edge of +19.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +17.5pp · closed at 3.77 (26.5%)
Model gives 44.1% vs FanDuel's implied 24.4%. Elo gap of -112 backs it.
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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